Tropical Rainstorm Will Close Out Weekend in Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with Dreary Conditions

Posted: October 22, 2022 8:57 am

Be sure to enjoy the beautiful fall weather along the East Coast while you can because a change is on the way in the form of a tropical rainstorm. Here is what you can expect with this intense weather maker.

Surge of Tropical Moisture Headed Toward Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England

The areas under the gun for this surge of tropical moisture include the mid-Atlantic coast up through the southern portions of New England. The rain should hold off until Sunday, making Saturday the better of the two days to head outside to harness the best of fall.

The weather will begin to take a turn for the worse on Sunday. The exact track of the low pressure area within the system will determine who bears the brunt of the storm. There is also still the possibility that the system could take on tropical characteristics, however, the odds of this happening are beginning to diminish with each passing hour.

The system will be able to leverage the high pressure currently anchored over the interior portions of the Northeast and merge with the low pressure churning across the Atlantic Ocean. Strong winds associated with the system will pull up tropical moisture from the Caribbean and as far as the eastern Pacific to deliver heavy rainfall.

The southeastern corner of New England and the eastern portions of Long Island, New York are the most likely areas of impact from this rainstorm. A general 1 – 2 inches of rain is forecast for this area with up to 5 inches of locally heavy rain a possibility. Unfortunately, all of those fallen leaves on the ground may block storm drains and lead to slick roadways. Localized flash flooding will also be a concern with a storm boasting this much moisture.

Coastal areas of the Northeast will likely see water levels increase 1 – 2 feet above average beginning Saturday and lasting through Monday. Because of this increase, a large swath of New England and Long Island will see some degree of coastal flooding during high tide. The rain will pair with next week’s new moon to raise astronomical tides.

The system will also usher in strong winds that could lead to sporadic power outages. The breezes will direct water from the Atlantic Ocean to the west and into the back bays. This movement may trigger minor coastal flooding events during high tide in an area expanding from North Carolina up to New York City.

While the bulk of the moisture is predicted to hug the coast, some isolated areas of rain may track as far west as New York City and into the eastern portions of New York state, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Much of Delaware and New Jersey will be under the gun for a soaking rainfall on Sunday as well as some parts of Virginia and North Carolina.

Potential Severity and Direction of Storm

Forecasters are still fine-tuning their predictions about this storm, warning that it could move farther to the west. This path would bring heavier rain to a larger area of the mid-Atlantic and into the central Appalachians. If the system fails to gain strength in the coming hours, the Interstate 95 corridor may not see much moisture out of it.

Any parts of the East Coast that see significant moisture will also experience cooler temperatures. For instance, areas that saw highs climb into the 70s on Saturday may struggle to get out of the 50s on Sunday as the moisture picks up.

Sunday is a busy day for outdoor professional sports in the region. In addition to two NFL games in Maryland, there are also MLB playoff games scheduled in Philadelphia and New York City. All of these areas may be under a threat of rain and falling temperatures. The rain may also stick around for the Monday night NFL game in Foxboro, Massachusetts.

The cloud cover associated with the tropical rainstorm may linger over the area for a substantial amount of time. Meteorologists are predicting that the dreary conditions could be in place until a storm that is expected to form over the southern Plains sends a cold front to the Northeast and pushes the clouds away.

Hurricane experts are also cautioning that this tropical weather pattern may fire up again off the Atlantic coast in the coming weeks. This is the time of the year when this part of the Atlantic tends to be most favorable for tropical activity.

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