Tropical Storm Philippe Changes Direction, Putting More Land in its Potential Path

Posted: September 28, 2023 9:00 am

Earlier in the week, experts with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) were not terribly concerned with the projected track of the newly formed Tropical Storm Philippe. However, that all changed on Tuesday as the system took a turn and is now headed in the direction of the northern Caribbean. Here is the latest on the track of this tropical weather event.

Increasing Wind Shear Sends Tropical Storm Philippe in Different Direction

The change in direction of Tropical Storm Philippe can be blamed on the increasing wind shear in this part of the Atlantic basin. While these winds have worked to weaken Philippe, they are also steering the storm in a different direction than had been expected with the early forecast models.

These changing conditions have contributed to the shift in Philippe’s track to the west. This means that the storm could usher in impacts to the islands of the northern portion of the Caribbean as soon as this weekend.

The wind shear changed the structure of the storm in a way that the part of the feature circulating in the upper atmosphere was sent to the northeast while the bottom part of the system began to track more to the west. Since only the bottom part of the storm has survived, it will be easily steered in a westerly direction by the easterly trade winds. In addition, the powerful southerly winds churning in the middle layer of the storm will not be able to influence the direction that the feature takes in the coming days.

This wind shear will likely work to prevent Philippe from strengthening into a hurricane. There is also the chance that the increasing amount of wind shear could push Philippe out of the category of a tropical storm.

The NHC defines a hurricane as a tropical weather event with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph. Conversely, a tropical storm is defined as a feature with sustained winds measuring between 39 and 73 mph.

If Philippe is indeed able to survive as a tropical storm or depression, it could impact the Leeward Islands by the end of this week. These potential impacts could hit Puerto Rico by the weekend.

There are some signs that Philippe could move toward the southeastern coastline of the U.S. if it remains on a westerly track. Be sure to keep an eye on this storm if you live in this part of the country.

Additional Area of Potential Development Being Monitored

Forecasters are also watching another potential area of tropical development as a new wave moves off the coast of Africa. The early models indicate that this feature could skirt past the Leeward Islands by early next week, ushering in heavy rain and rough seas.

This feature is likely to head in a similar direction as Philippe due to the current conditions in place in the central Atlantic. This means that the trade winds are expected to push this system to the west. Should this happen, the northeastern Caribbean may see yet another shot of tropical weather later next week.

The next two names on the list for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season are Rina and Sean.

This is the time of the year when wind shear tends to increase in the Atlantic basin. Increasing amounts of wind shear is associated with the mitigation of tropical weather systems. However, tropical weather is still a possibility because of the exceptionally warm ocean waters.

These warmer than average sea surface temperatures are even more heightened this year because of the emerging El Niño pattern. Only time will tell how much this pattern will influence the formation of new storms in the basin as the season enters its back end.

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