Tropical Storm Pilar Develops in East Pacific, Threatening Portions of Central America

Posted: October 31, 2023 10:31 am

Many areas of the tropics in the Northern Hemisphere are still spinning with activity heading into the beginning of November. Here is what foresters are monitoring this week across the world’s oceans.

Tropical Storm Pilar Forms in East Pacific

Tropical Storm Pilar came to life over the weekend in the eastern portion of the Pacific basin. While the feature took some time to organize and develop tropical characteristics, forecasters are now predicting that there is a good chance that the storm will turn into a hurricane in the coming days.

Pilar is currently tracking to the northeast, putting it closer to El Salvador and Guatemala. Ocean water temperatures hovering in the low to mid 80s along with low amounts of wind shear will work to provide the necessary ingredients for Pilar to grow and intensify.

The tropical storm is forecast to reach the coast of El Salvador on Tuesday before it makes a sharp 180-degree turn to the southwest. This will steer the system away from land by the middle of the week. However, torrential rain is still in the forecast for the coastlines of El Salvador, Guatemala, and the western edge of Nicaragua. The threat of rain and flash flooding will also hover over the higher terrains of southern Honduras.

Rainfall amounts of 1 -2 inches are in the forecast for the southern coastal areas of Guatemala through the western coast of Nicaragua. This rain will expand as far as the northwestern corner of Costa Rica as it chugs along.

A more potent zone of rain totaling 2 – 4 inches is predicted for the central portion of the Nicaragua coast through El Salvador. The heaviest area of rain is likely to fall across the coastline of El Salvador and up through northern Nicaragua, totaling 4 – 8 inches by the time the storm dissipates.

Winds will also be a factor with Pilar. Maximum sustained winds of up to 60 mph will be found along the southern coast of Guatemala through the western edge of Nicaragua while slightly higher winds will fly along the coastline of El Salvador.

The worst of Pilar’s impacts will be over by Wednesday when the storm takes its expected turn to the southwest. This path will take it into the open waters of the Eastern Pacific.

Checking Out the Atlantic Basin

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are also busy watching the Atlantic for two potential developments this week. The first area is located near the Bahamas Islands. However, this system is going to encounter an area of stronger wind shear that will likely work to break it up and mitigate its future development.

The second area is developing over the Caribbean. This feature has been assigned a medium chance of turning into a tropical depression or storm by the end of the week. Unfortunately for Central America, this system could impact the same part of the region expected to take the brunt of Tropical Storm Pilar.

There is also the possibility that some of the moisture created by this feature could hang around the western Caribbean in the coming days, putting it on a potential course to enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Straits. This movement could lead to rain showers and severe storms by early next week in Florida.

Potent Windstorm Set to Unleash Across Western Europe

Over on the other side of the hemisphere, Storm Ciaran is forecast to bring heavy rain and storm winds to several areas of western Europe. Although this is not a tropical feature, it will carry impacts similar to a storm of this magnitude. What is expected to be the strongest windstorm of the season thus far will spread across the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Portugal, and more.

The storm will come together as an area of low pressure centered over the northeastern corner of the U.S. tracks into the northern Atlantic Ocean and meets up with a southward dip in the jet stream. This interaction will create winds that pick up by over 35 mph in a period of less than 24 hours.

The UK Met Office has already named the feature Storm Ciaran. The system will usher in torrential rain, rough seas, and coastal flooding to the UK beginning late Wednesday. Forecasters also believe that Storm Ciaran could break the record for the stronger low pressure reading ever recorded in the UK. The current record is 28.02 inches so mercury, dating back to 1954.

The heavy rain will expand into western Europe through Friday. The worst of the rain is predicted to fall across northwestern Spain, the southwestern and northern part of coastal France, and into northern Italy.

Winds could gust to as high as 60 mph for a large swath of western Europe, whipping around as far north as the Netherlands. Major cities that may experience these gusty conditions include Paris, London, and Brussels. Residents should be prepared for the risk of widespread power outages, minor structural damage, and downed trees.

Storm Ciaran will also churn up the seas in the region, triggering waves as high as 40 feet across the Bay of Biscay and into the English Channel. This will translate to the likelihood of disruption to the ferry operations in these waterways.

Just as Storm Ciaran exits the region on Friday, another round of rain and stormy conditions is on the horizon for western Europe over the weekend.

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