Two Areas of Low Pressure to Encourage Precipitation Across the Northeast and Beyond

Posted: June 22, 2023 5:58 pm

It has been a dry May and June for much of the Northeast, triggering worsening drought conditions across the corner of the country.

However, forecasters are predicting that a much wetter weather pattern will set up across the region starting this week and bringing the month of June to a close. Here is what you need to know about these moisture prospects as well as a look at what is happening in other parts of the U.S.

Low Pressure System Will Create More Chances of Rain for the Northeast

According to the recent data release from the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of the mid-Atlantic and interior New England is seeing the impacts of abnormally dry soil with some areas experiencing moderate drought levels.

For instance, the nation’s capital has recorded less than 10% of its average June rainfall so far this month with less than 0.30 of an inch of rain on the books. This compares to the historical average of over 4 inches for Washington, D.C.

Relief from the dry conditions will come when an area of low pressure forms over the southern Appalachian Mountains, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley later this week. This low will bring up the mass amounts of tropical moisture circulating to the south.

The increase in the moisture will pair with rising humidity levels this weekend in the Northeast. The incoming precipitation will linger through the start of next week, setting up a much wetter weather pattern for some of the most populated cities along the Interstate 95 corridor.

While this area of low pressure will move out by the end of the weekend, another zone of low pressure from the Midwest will move in by the start of the next work week. As a result, those in the Northeast can expect the rain and threat of thunderstorms to hang around through at least the middle of next week.

Looking at the Short Term Forecast

It has been a dry start to summer for cities such as Philadelphia. However, the rain will pick up by Thursday in the City of Brotherly Love. The risk of stormy conditions is forecast to be in place through at least Wednesday of next week. The rain will also impact New York City by early Thursday.

Although this rain is desperately needed in some areas of the Northeast, it could be a risky weekend to plan outdoor activities. Some areas may see 2 to 4 inches of rain through early next week thanks to the two separate areas of low pressure. Localized downpours and severe storms are both in the cards for the next several days in a zone stretching from Virginia up into New England.

Along with the increase in moisture, residents can expect the temperatures to fall briefly on Thursday. Philadelphia is forecast to see a high of just 67 degrees, well below the historical average for this time of the year. The mercury will hover in the mid 60s in places such as Boston.

This is a significant change from the readings in the 80s that most of the region saw to start the week. The cooldown in the Northeast is expected to be brief with more seasonable temperatures in store for the weekend.

A southward dip in the jet steam this weekend will also bring cooler temperatures to the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley in the coming days. For example, Columbus, Ohio will see a brief cooldown on Thursday and Friday, seasonable readings back in the low 80s for the weekend, and then another round of temperatures in the 70s to start the new week.

The Great Lakes and the interior portions of the Northeast will also be dealing with a stagnant air mass that is trapping the smoke and haze coming from the Canadian wildfires. Air quality levels will continue to pose potential issues for parts of Wisconsin, Michigan, and the northern tier of Indiana, Illinois, and Ohio.

Other Areas of Severe Weather Concern

In addition to the potential of storms impacting the Northeast and mid-Atlantic to close out the week, a large swath of the Rockies and the northern Plains will also be under the gun for severe weather. Thursday will bring the chance of fiery storms to eastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado.

This line of storms will extend as far south as the northern Texas Panhandle with the greatest threat in the afternoon and evening hours.

Potential impacts of Thursday’s severe weather event include large hail, frequent lightning strikes, and gusty winds. Heavy rain may also trigger flash flooding, particularly for areas that have seen multiple consecutive days of severe weather this week.

This severe weather threat will continue on Friday, impacting cities such as Liberal, Kansas and Scottsbluff, Nebraska. Friday’s storms will also pack a more significant threat of tornadic activity thanks to the greater amount of spin circulating in the atmosphere. By Saturday, the storms will shift to the east, bringing major cities such as Kansas City and St. Louis into the potential impact zone.

Northern Plains Also Under Fire

The northern Plains will also be under fire for frequent storms heading into the weekend. Rising temperatures in cities such as Omaha and Minneapolis will provide the fuel for this storm development. Both of these communities will see readings that land in the 90s, translating to about 5 – 10 degrees above average for this time of June.

The mercury will start a stark downward trajectory late Saturday after the storms move through. Minneapolis is forecast to only see temperatures in the mid 70s for a high on Sunday, a change of about 20 degrees from the end of the week.

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