Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Calls for More Named Storms

Posted: August 7, 2023 3:00 pm

With the first two months of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season in the rearview mirror, it is time to brace for the peak of the tropical activity while looking back at what has transpired thus far. Read on for all of the details.

Atlantic Hurricane Season with Five Storms on the Books

There have been five storms on the books for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. This list includes a rare unnamed subtropical storm from January, three tropical storms that roamed the basin in June, and one hurricane that did not impact land in July. With these numbers, the season is slightly ahead of pace for the average number of named storms by this date in the calendar.

August 22 is the average date for the fifth storm of the season while August 11 is the average date for the first hurricane. This means that the season is ready to kick into high gear as the end of August approaches.

Revised Predictions to 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

You can expect to see about 14 named tropical features in a typical year in the Atlantic Ocean. At the start of the season, hurricane experts were in alignment that the year would bring about an average number of named storms to this part of the basin. However, those predictions have since increased due to a number of environmental factors.

Meteorologists are now predicting that the 2023 season will come in at slightly higher than this average number. The current models predict between 13 and 17 storms by the time the season wraps up at the end of November.

This prediction encompasses four to eight hurricanes along with one to three of these developing into major hurricanes of a Category 3 or higher. Experts warn that they are expecting two to four direct storm impacts to the U.S. mainland.

The accumulated cycle energy (ACE) value is also expected to fall within normal or slightly above normal ranges this season. This metric is how experts analyze and assign how much wind energy is produced by a named storm throughout the course of its life span. For instance, a weak syst711em that does not survive long translates to a smaller ACE value while long-lived storms with more power produce a higher ACE value.

The 30-year ACE historical average is 123. Hurricane experts are predicting that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season ACE value will come in between 105 and 135. Earlier in the season, the models were predicting a season average falling between 75 and 105.

What is Driving the Change in the Forecast?

There are a number of environmental factors that are influencing the upward prediction of named storms in the Atlantic. A faster onset of the El Niño climate phase has been the primary driving factor behind the increase in storm numbers and intensity.

Originally, forecasters were not expecting this climate phase to set in until later in the season, however, its June development has had a ripple effect on many other environmental factors in the Atlantic.

In addition, abnormally warm ocean water temperatures in the Atlantic have also supported the development and strengthening of more tropical features.

Waters off the coast of Florida have trended exceptionally warm in recent weeks, prompting forecasters to sound the alarm bell about the potential of tropical development in this region. This current marine heat wave also leads to a greater chance of rapid intensification as the storms form near the coast of Florida.

As a result, local officials and meteorologists are warning residents to not delay in their hurricane preparedness planning. Any storm that does take root in this part of the basin could strengthen and impact land at a fast clip, leaving little time to prepare your home or evacuate.

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