Weekend Washout in Store for Much of Eastern Seaboard as Tropical Feature Comes Together

Posted: September 22, 2023 2:46 pm

Tropical storm warnings and storm surge warnings are in effect for a large portion of the coastline of the southeastern U.S. and up through the mid-Atlantic as a strengthening storm threatens this corner of the country. Here is what you need to know about this developing situation and how it may impact outdoor weather plans.

Tropical Feature Taking Shape Off Coast of Carolinas

Forecasters with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) are warning that the Eastern Seaboard is about to take a beating from a developing tropical weather system. The weekend is likely to be a washout for millions of Americans as the storm unleashes torrential rain, high winds, and dangerous storm surge.

The developing storm is coming together off the coast of the Carolinas. As of mid-day Friday, the storm was sitting about 240 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, packing maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The latest round of satellite imagery indicates that the storm is beginning to form the bands that distinguish a tropical feature. While the feature already boasts tropical-storm-force winds of the magnitude needed to classify it as a tropical storm, it also needs to form a closed center of circulation to fall into this category of a named storm.

The storm is predicted to intensify as it moves to the north throughout the day. An area of warm ocean water known as the Gulf Stream will help to fuel the storm as it moves closer to the coastline. Water temperatures in the Gulf Stream are currently reading between 80 and 85 degrees, the threshold necessary for tropical development.

This weather maker is coming together near the boundary of cool and dry air located to the northwest and the much warmer and humid air circulating to the southeast. These homegrown systems are common this type of year in this area of the Atlantic basin.

Predicted Landfall and Impacts

The current forecasting models are predicting a landfall in the eastern portion of North Carolina on Saturday morning. Forecasters believe that the storm will develop into a named storm just prior to landfall. The next two names on the list for the 2023 Atlantic season are Ophelia and Philippe. There is an outside chance that the storm could reach hurricane strength if it spends more time in the warm waters just off the coast.

The steering breeze pattern is expected to keep the storm moving along the coast throughout the day, bringing severe impacts to the Carolinas, eastern Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula. While the most significant impacts will take place along the coast, the rain will expand inland on Saturday and Sunday.

Likely impacts from this storm include heavy rain, strong winds, flooding, and rough sea conditions. The impact zone stretches from the Carolinas and up through New Jersey and into southern New England.

The effects of this storm were being felt as far north as New Jersey by Friday morning, speaking to its large size. Tropical-storm-force winds are forecast to continue to impact this long stretch of coastline through the weekend. These winds could cause regional power outages.

Moderate coastal flooding is also a possibility for both the Delaware and Chesapeake bays, particularly during times of high tide. Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is in the forecast for the coastline of South Carolina and into southeastern New York. A localized storm surge of 3 to 6 feet is expected in North Carolina and into southeastern Virginia.

Other potential impacts include severe thunderstorms, isolated tornadoes, and waterspouts. The most significant threat of severe weather will be centered to the east and northeast of where the storm eventually makes landfall.

Boaters should expect rapidly deteriorating seas on Friday and Saturday. In addition to dangerous rip currents, the waters off this part of the country will also see rough surf conditions and the chance of minor beach erosion.

Travel delays are also likely up and down the East Coast and as far as the heavily traveled Interstate 95 corridor. Flight disruptions will be a concern throughout the weekend in some of the nation’s busiest airport hubs, including the cities of New York City, Washington, D.C., Boston, and Philadelphia.

The persistent rain, cloudy cover, and wind will keep the temperatures below normal for this time of the year. For instance, the highs in New York City and Boston will hover in the low 60s on Saturday. Real feel readings could drop even lower.

The models are still not in agreement about how far west the rain will push. The track of the storm as it moves closer to shore will determine how far this rain moves inland. The moisture could reach as far west as the Appalachians and beyond. This region is most likely to see rain out of this system while avoiding the worst of the winds.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic

This is not the only tropical weather event brewing in the Atlantic basin at this time. A system coming together off the Cabo Verde Islands near Africa is predicted to become a named storm in the coming days. There is a good chance that this feature could strengthen into a hurricane as it moves farther west.

What was once a Category 2 storm, Hurricane Nigel is starting to weaken as it churns over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic. However, the storm may remain together long enough to bring impacts to the United Kingdom over the weekend.

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