Wet Christmas Weekend on Tap for Central and Southern U.S.

Posted: December 22, 2023 9:33 am

A large swath of the nation from the Plains and down through the South will experience a wet Christmas holiday weekend as a significant amount of moisture is gearing up to dump across the region. You will want to dig out your umbrellas and rain boots if your holiday plans have you in this area in the coming days. Here is what you need to know.

Wet Christmas Weekend on the Horizon for Millions

A storm system packed with moisture is headed toward the heartland of the U.S. before it moves across the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast. While the rain will provide much-needed relief to the drought, it will also bring along the threat of flooding as Americans gather and celebrate the holidays.

This weather maker is part of the same storm system that triggered torrential rain across Southern California and the Desert Southwest. The Plains states and the lower Mississippi Valley can expect to see this rain arrive by late Saturday and into Sunday while the Midwest and the Southeast will see the moisture just in time for Christmas Day on Monday.

It has been a period of mostly dry and tranquil weather for the Plains and the Southeast, helping residents to get out and run those last-minute holiday errands with ease. That is all about to change as the new storm system makes its way from the West.

The forecast of heavy rain will undoubtedly snarl traffic for travelers heading to spend the holidays with loved ones. In addition to the meaningful amounts of rain, the storm system will also create the risk of strong thunderstorms and flooding events.

The system coming in from the West will meet up with a surge of moisture filtering to the north from the Gulf of Mexico to trigger the downpours. Texas and the southern Plains will be the first areas to see the rain develop on Saturday. This mass of moisture will march up into the Upper Midwest and across into the Mississippi Valley by Sunday as people head out for Christmas Eve activities.

The zone expected to see the heaviest rains include the Texas Hill Country and the Arklatex region. This region should prepare for up to a few inches of rain thanks to the repeated downpours. The forecast is calling for this region to see the rain begin on Saturday afternoon and continue through the overnight hours before heading into the Ozark, the Mississippi Valley, and the Gulf Coast by Sunday.

Looking at Specific Rainfall Amounts

Little Rock is predicted to pick up about a half of an inch of rain on Sunday with another half of an inch on tap for the overnight hours heading into Christmas morning. The rain will become steadier as the day progresses, making for some messy travel on Christmas Eve.

While San Antonio will not see a persistent stream of rain, scattered thunderstorms could stymie travel and disrupt outdoor plans. The greatest threat of storms will be on Saturday and into Sunday morning. Residents can count on drier conditions by Christmas Day as the storm advances to the east.

The rain will pick up Saturday evening in Oklahoma City, resulting in about an inch of accumulation overnight. This moisture will linger throughout the day Sunday with the chance of a stray thunderstorm firing up. It will also be breezy with winds out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Cities that may be dealing with flooding over the weekend include Dallas, Houston, and Memphis. Motorists will want to exercise caution if using portions of interstates 10, 20, 30, 35, 40, 49, and 55 in the affected areas.

Forecasters are calling for a widespread rainfall of 2 to 3 inches for much of this region. Locally higher totals of up to 4 inches are also within the realm of possibility. While these rain bands may spur the development of a few thunderstorms, forecasters are not anticipating a widespread outbreak of severe weather.

The most likely areas to see severe weather will be along the Gulf Coast and across the panhandle region of Texas and Oklahoma. Small hail is a possibility in these areas if storms develop.

Rain Marches to the East and the North by Christmas

The line of rain will continue to march to the east by Christmas Day, bringing the moisture to the lower Midwest and into the Southeast. This movement will translate to a wet holiday for major cities such as Kansas City, Chicago, Indianapolis, St. Louis, Memphis, Nashville, and Atlanta.

Fortunately, the storm system is expected to pick up its pace by Monday, helping to thwart the risk of flooding.

Looking ahead to the week, the storm is then predicted to move up the Atlantic Seaboard on Tuesday. As a result, travelers heading home after the holiday could see disruptions in cities such as Charlotte and Raleigh. The exact track of the storm is still uncertain, making it important that you stay tuned.

While the rain will make for a soggy holiday weekend for millions of Americans, the moisture is good news for a part of the country that has been put into the category of an exceptional drought by the U.S. Drought Monitor. For instance, New Orleans is currently sitting at 25 inches below the historical average of rain by this time of the year. The Crescent City is forecast to see up to an inch of rain on Sunday, helping to provide some relief to the dryness.

Although this weekend’s rain will not come close to erasing the drought, any bit of moisture is helpful.

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