What Does 2022 Have in Store for Tornado Alley and Beyond?

Posted: March 19, 2022 2:51 am

Experts Are Predicting a Greater Than Normal Number of Tornadoes for 2022

A rash of severe weather throughout the U.S. over the last few weeks has ushered in the beginning of the meteorological spring. What will the 2022 severe weather season have in store? Read on for more information about what the experts are saying.

Looking Back on 2021

The 2021 severe season roared in like a lion with numerous tornado outbreaks throughout the southern tier of the U.S. in March. However, the activity quickly quieted down with very few outbreaks in April, particularly compared to average. Things fired up again in May with storms roaring through the typical places such as Tornado Alley and throughout the Southeast.

The real story of 2021 was the unusually active December. You may remember a large tornadic outbreak during the middle of the month that caused over 90 deaths with the bulk of the fatalities occurring in Kentucky. A rare derecho spun up on December 15 in Iowa, the first of its kind for the last month of the year.

The ending to 2021 proved that severe weather can occur at any time of the year. However, these severe storms are most likely to spin up through the central portion of the country during the months of March, April, and May.

Hot Start to 2022

It has already been a fast start to the 2022 severe weather season. A number of tornadoes sprung up in the central and eastern parts of the nation on three days in February. An outbreak over the first weekend in March claimed the lives of at least seven people after an EF4 tornado roared through Des Moines, Iowa.

Forecasters are cautioning that the 2022 season may bring more outbreaks outside of the usual Tornado Alley. This area of the central U.S. refers to the region that has a higher potential of tornado occurrences.

The area historically known as Tornado Alley includes a large area of the southern Plains through the northern Plains, encompassing central Texas, and the bulk of Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota. The western edge of this alley includes a bit of eastern Colorado and New Mexico while the eastern edge includes a narrow strip of Iowa.

However, in recent years, scientists have noticed a higher concentration of tornadoes to the east, expanding into the Mississippi and Tennessee valleys. Heading into 2022, meteorologists are warning that while Tornado Alley will still see its fair share of twisters, the worst of the activity may continue to shift to the east.

What Will 2022 Bring?

According to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), March brings an average of 80 tornadoes. However, new forecasts predict that there will be between between 120 and 170 twisters in the U.S this month. The south-central Plains and the Gulf Coast will likely see the majority of the action for March.

While 2021 saw a brief respite from the severe weather in April, this is not likely to be the case in 2022. Forecasters are predicting between 200 and 275 confirmed tornadoes for April, dramatically more than the 73 twisters on record for 2021 and also well above the historical average of 155 for the month.

Drought Conditions to Lower Tornado Risk in Some Areas

During this month, the storms will also begin to move to the east. This movement will be fueled by increasing drought conditions in the High Plains and Four Corners region as well as a shift in the jet stream that will dictate where the storms are most likely to take root.

The majority of the areas within Tornado Alley are under severe drought conditions. This state mitigates the odds of storm development. While this is good news for those worried about severe weather, it also has the negative consequence of making the drought worse.

Because of the ongoing drought, the risk of storms will be lower in April and May for the areas under these conditions. This includes northwestern Texas and into southwestern Kansas and eastern Colorado. While the drought will certainly hinder the development of storms in these dry areas, there is still a significant risk of tornadic activity.

The storms will likely decrease again heading into May with between 140 and 190 twisters projected for the month. This prediction is down from the average of 276 tornadoes.

Although the overall threat of tornadic activity will decrease in May, the threat of storms will expand eastward beyond Tornado Alley. In addition, areas of the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast should also not be surprised to see tornadoes develop in May.

Overall Tornado Picture

Overall, experts are predicting a grand total of between 1,350 to 1,475 tornadoes throughout the country for the year. This prediction lands above the annual average of 1,253. Forecasters are also cautioning that 2022 may see the highest number of tornadoes since 2019 when the country saw 1,517 confirmed tornadoes.

It should be noted that the U.S. is now experiencing the longest period of time without an EF5 tornado touchdown. The last EF5 twister in the U.S. hit Moore, Oklahoma in May of 2013. Although forecasters feel confident enough to predict a general amount of tornadoes for the year, it is more challenging to guess the intensity of these storms.

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