What is in Store for the 2021 Tornado Season? Read This to Find Out

Posted: April 5, 2021 12:29 pm

As the recent rash of deadly tornadoes across the Southeast demonstrated, tornado season is here in full force. March, April, and May are considered to be the peak of tornadic activity across the US. What are forecasters saying about the predicted severity of this year’s season? Read here to find out.

Already a Deadly Season: Extreme weather tore across the Southeast in mid and late March, killing at least six people with back-to-back tornado outbreaks. The National Weather Service (NWS) was forced to take the unprecedented step of issuing high-risk threats for the same region two weeks in a row. This type of advanced alert signifies high confidence in severe weather outbreaks. As the forecasters had predicted, the outbreaks did indeed happen. Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia were the epicenter of these March tornadic outbreaks.

According to data from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), there have been 207 confirmed tornadoes in the US through the end of March. Half of these tornadoes came during the two outbreaks on March 17 and March 25. While the first outbreak did not claim any lives, at least six deaths were blamed on the second event. March’s high numbers came in direct contrast to the lower than average confirmed tornadoes in January and February.

Of these 207 tornadoes in 2021, 180 of them happened in March. The monthly average for March is only 82, signaling that it was indeed a very active month for twisters.

Looking at What is Ahead: Forecasters from AccuWeather are predicting between 1,350 and 1,500 tornadoes to touch down in 2021 throughout the US. This estimation is slightly higher than the yearly average of 1,383. In 2020, there were 1,245 confirmed tornadoes.

Why the Expected Increase? So why are forecasters predicting a higher than average tornado season? The answer lies with a few different contributing factors. The presence of La Niña through the bulk of the spring season will automatically raise the risk of tornadic development. This weather pattern happens when the ocean waters near the equator in the Pacific Ocean run cooler than average.

A La Niña pattern causes stronger winds while also setting up conditions that contribute to cold and warm air clashing. This clash sets up a higher risk of severe weather, including tornadoes.

The highest risk of tornadic activity is expected to happen throughout the Mississippi River Valley, the Ohio Valley, and stretching into some areas of the mid-Atlantic. Big cities in this swath of land include Memphis, Nashville, Little Rock, St. Louis, and Indianapolis.

Not All Areas to See Elevated Risk: However, the areas of the country that generally see the largest amount of tornadoes may enjoy a bit of breather. The current severe drought conditions throughout the area known as Tornado Alley may hamper the development of these storms this spring. This includes parts of northern Texas extending up into Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska.

Waters of the Gulf a Contributing Factor: Another factor that is influencing the risk of the tornadic activity is the current temperature of the waters in the Gulf of Mexico. As Arctic air made its way into the South in February, water temperatures in the western portion of the Gulf of Mexico dropped significantly. However, the central Gulf waters are still warm, pushing the risk of severe weather into the Gulf Coast states and the Tennessee Valley and away from the Plains.

At the end of March, the ocean water off of the coast of Texas was measuring around 65 degrees. Compare this to the 81-degree reading in the eastern part of the Gulf and it is easy to see why the risk of tornadoes has also shifted to the east. This is because an absence of warm water directly correlates to a lack of warm and humid air needed to strengthen severe weather conditions.

Similarities Between 2021 and 2011 Worrisome: Forecasters are sounding the alarm as they discover similarities between the 2021 tornado season and the deadly season of 2011. In April 2011, 321 people died as a result of severe weather. According to the SPC, there were 2,240 reports of confirmed tornadoes during this historic year.

Although May has historically been the peak of tornado season, the last few years have seen more severe weather outbreaks in April.

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