What Will Punxsutawney Phil See Next Week When He Emerges from the Burrow?

Posted: January 26, 2023 2:09 am

Storms Likely to Fire Up Again in California by End of Winter

You are not alone if you are wishing that spring would hurry up and arrive. The meteorological winter is now officially halfway over, however, the impacts of the season could stick around for some areas for weeks to come.

Will Winter Hang on or Will Spring Arrive Earlier than Expected?

All eyes will be on Punxsutawney Phil next week as he emerges from his burrow in Pennsylvania on February 2 to determine if he sees his shadow. Legend has it that the appearance of Phil’s shadow indicates that the nation is in store for six more weeks of winter. Conversely, the absence of the famous groundhog’s shadow is a signal that an early spring is on the way.

Although all of this groundhog lore is fun, weather experts are already warning that much of the U.S. should expect more cold air and wintry precipitation for some time to come. The meteorological start of spring will likely be similar to the first few weeks of winter for the bulk of the U.S., a time that saw frigid air and a host of wintry precipitation impacts. In fact, the long-range forecast is calling for a good chance of Arctic air moving into the country as the calendar flips to March.

This polar vortex is setting up to plunge southward from Canada just as many Americans are hoping to put away their coats and snow shovels for the season. This weather event defines the presence of a large area of bitterly cold air that features counterclockwise winds. It is not unusual for this polar vortex to break off from the North Pole and move to the south, ushering in unseasonably cold temperatures.

Weather experts are predicting that this polar vortex may visit the U.S. to start the month of February before retreating and then potentially coming back at the end of the month and into March. Should this happen, much of the country will be in for a roller coaster of temperatures over the next six weeks.

Forecasts for Specific Areas of U.S.

While conditions can certainly change, most long-range forecasts are predicting that the majority of the Pacific Northwest, the interior West, the Rocky Mountain region, and the northern Plains will be under winter weather for the next six weeks. Meanwhile, the Gulf Coast, Florida, the central Appalachians, and the mid-Atlantic may enjoy an early arrival of spring. The rest of the nation, including most of California, the Desert Southwest, the Midwest, and the Northeast will experience a constant tug-of-war between the two competing weather patterns.

It is also shaping up to be an active weather month for March when it comes to severe storms. This will be blamed on the flip-flop of the cold and warm temperatures over this time period. The areas most likely to see the severe storms include the Plains states and the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Similar to what has happened this winter, warmer than average water temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico will also fuel the proliferation of storms in the central Gulf Coast region and beyond.

Will Storm Train Continue in California?

California has experienced record-breaking amounts of rain and snow over the last month. While the Golden State is currently enjoying a drier weather pattern, forecasters are predicting that the transition into spring may bring a reprise of this heavy precipitation. This is good news for parts of the state and the Colorado River Basin region still dealing with severe drought conditions.

Additional rounds of moisture are predicted to fire up again in the latter part of winter and into the early spring weeks. This will undoubtedly help to continue erasing the impacts of the drought heading into the dry and hot summer months. Although the storm pattern is not likely to rival what the West saw to start 2023, the end of this winter season is expected to bring more moisture than what the region experienced in 2022.

Climate experts are currently examining data to determine if the current La Niña will hang on through the summer or will conditions begin to favor an El Niño pattern. All of these answers will become clearer in the next few weeks as forecasters begin to fine tune their long-range predictions.

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