What Will Punxsutawney Phil Will Say About Spring?

Posted: January 31, 2022 10:45 am

Groundhog Day is just around the corner. As is tradition on February 2, Punxsutawney Phil will peek his head out from his burrow just after the sun rises in central Pennsylvania. If Phil sees his shadow because of the clear weather at the time, he will retreat back to the burrow and winter will continue for six more weeks. However, if Phil does not see his shadow, spring is on its way.

This tradition has been around since 1887. Despite over a century of records, there has never been a proven correlation between Phil seeing his shadow and when spring arrives. What matters the most is what weather experts are saying about the long-range forecast. Here is what you need to know.

What the Forecasts Are Predicting About Phil’s Shadow for 2022

Most forecasters are predicting that Phil will not see his shadow, signaling an early arrival of spring. Just days out, the forecast for the area is showing mostly cloudy conditions and a chance of rain with high temperatures in the mid 40s. However, it is important to remember that the legend of Punxsutawney Phil is just a myth. Meteorologists are largely in agreement that winter is going to hang on for several more weeks, particularly in the northern half of the nation.

Where Spring May Arrive Ahead of Schedule

Who will see the greatest odds of an end to winter? An early spring is likely for the Southeast, including Florida, Georgia, and the eastern half of the Carolinas. The mercury is predicted to climb in this region by the middle of February with above average temperatures in the long-range forecast for the end of winter and early part of spring.

It has been a long winter for much of the Southeast. The region has been at the mercy of numerous blasts of Arctic air and unseasonable amounts of winter precipitation. January was particularly hard for areas of Tennessee and the Carolinas with multiple snow and ice storms. An early spring will certainly be a relief to these battered areas.

The long-range forecast for the Southwest is also indicating that spring may arrive earlier than usual in this part of the country. The region experienced an early onset of winter with a great amount of moisture as the main storyline. While the lower elevations and desert terrain saw this moisture in the form of rain, the mountains experienced snowfall.

However, this precipitation began to let up as the calendar flipped to 2022. This dry pattern is expected to continue over the next several weeks. This will allow warmth to build up throughout the region beginning in late February. It will not be surprising if summer also makes an early appearance in cities such as Las Vegas, San Antonio, and Phoenix.

Where Will Winter Hang On Longer?

It will be a different story for the northern tier of the nation where experts believe that winter will hang on a bit longer. This includes the bulk of the Upper Plains, the northern Rockies, and the Pacific Northwest. An expansive polar vortex will be responsible for bringing continuous blasts of Arctic air to this area throughout February.

This Arctic air could expand farther to the east later in February and into March, bringing the potential of persistent cold to the Northeast as well. The Great Lakes and Northeast are predicted to see wide fluctuations of temperatures in March and April.

While March may tempt residents with frequent bouts of warmer than average air temperatures, it will be likely that cold weather comes back once again. The good news is that the cold blasts that characterize March and April will not be as strong as what the Northeast has seen throughout much of the winter so far.

Cold Fronts Will Also Bring Snow

As these predicted cold fronts move through the Northeast and beyond, they will raise the risk of wintry precipitation. The Interstate 95 corridor cannot let down their guard when it comes to accumulating snowfall even after February ends. Forecasters are warning that it could be April before the last of the snow threats exit the Northeast and northern portions of the mid-Atlantic.

It has already been a whopper of a winter for areas of the mid-Atlantic, including Washington, D.C and Baltimore. The nation’s capital has already seen over one foot of snow in January, compared to just 5.4 inches in 2021. It could end up being one of the snowiest winters in Washington, D.C. in almost 10 years if the city continues to see these bursts of snow as predicted.

Potential of Severe Weather Due to Temperature Clashes

It will be severe weather in the form of potential thunderstorms that will be the primary concern in the middle of the U.S. The prospects of early spring warmth in the South mixing with the remnants of winter hanging out farther to the north will set the stage for the development of severe thunderstorms. These thunderstorms could get going as soon as the end of February.

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