When Will Spring Arrive for You and What Will it Look Like?

Posted: February 11, 2022 10:55 am

Tropical Activity May Also Fire Up Earlier Than Normal in 2022

It has been a rough winter for much of the U.S., making many people long for an early arrival to spring. While the meteorological spring begins on March 1, the astronomical spring does not start until March 20. However, just because the calendar says it is spring, it does not mean that it will feel that way immediately. What is the spring forecast for your neck of the woods? Read on to learn what the experts are saying.

Northeast and Midwest May See Winter Hang Around

Forecasters are not optimistic that the Northeast and the Midwest will shake the doldrums of winter any time soon. Although the winter season was slow to set in throughout the Midwest and the Northeast, it also looks like it will be slow to leave. After a dry and mild December, January has brought round after round of snow and bitterly cold temperatures to the region, including the coldest weather in three years for the Ohio Valley.

Forecasters are predicting that while the temperatures may hint at spring in early March, residents should expect another round of cold air and winter precipitation later in March and even into April. This means that there will be the possibility of late-season frosts and freezes that may affect when farmers can safely begin planting for the season.

The likelihood of these late winter and early spring storms will also raise the risk of flooding. This could also translate to a greater risk of ice jams, particularly in the Midwest. Ice jams occur when the temperature fluctuates wildly, leading to continuing melting and refreezing of standing water. The yo-yo pattern of the mercury over the last several weeks in the Midwest is expected to continue into March.

Cold Air to Continue in Northern Plains and Rockies

The cold air is also expected to linger in the northern Rockies and throughout the Upper Plains. Snow may also be slow to move out of the northern tier of the U.S. this year. This means that Spring Break destinations such as Yellowstone National Park may still be a winter wonderland well into the spring. However, the lingering snow may translate to later than average closing dates for many ski resorts throughout the Rockies, giving winter sports enthusiasts more time to enjoy the conditions.

Severe Weather Season Predicted to Fire Up Early in 2022

The fluctuating weather patterns will also increase the risk for severe weather much earlier in the season compared to what the Midwest and Tornado Alley usually see. Some forecasters are expecting that severe thunderstorms may pop up as early as late February.

The pattern of storms is forecast to fire up quickly with April being a particularly busy month for tornadoes. Predictions are signaling a slightly above-normal amount of tornado activity. Over 200 tornadoes are expected to touch ground in April with the highest concentration of these storms predictably in the central portions of the nation. Last April saw 73 confirmed tornado touchdowns with the average hovering around 175 for the month.

Like last year, areas outside of Tornado Alley may be at a higher risk for outbreaks. The greatest threat of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes heading into the spring will be along the Gulf Coast, and into the Tennessee, Ohio, and Mississippi valleys. This bullseye includes major cities such as Kansas City, St. Louis, Nashville, and Indianapolis.

Tornado Alley will also still be prone to seeing a rash of severe weather systems ignite. However, the continued drought in the Upper Plains will temper these storms a bit.

Drought to Persist Out West

Unfortunately, the wet pattern in the central U.S. is not going to expand to the west. Although the winter brought a widespread parade of storms throughout Washington, Oregon, and California, conditions began to dry up again in January. Storms are expected to make another appearance later in February, bringing desperately needed moisture to the drought-stricken region. However, it is not likely to be enough to erase the drought conditions for much of the area.

There is also the concern that these storms will take a northerly track. Should this happen, the rain would be centered in the Pacific Northwest, leaving Southern California and parts of the interior Southwest begging for moisture. The spring is when many of these regions experience the greatest surge of moisture, needed to fill up water reservoirs heading into the dry summer months.

The areas that are predicted to see the greatest drought conditions this spring include the High Plains, the Four Corners region, and the Great Basin. Along with the dry pattern, the majority of the Southwest is on track to see warmer than average temperatures. This includes the cities of Las Vegas and Phoenix. Not only is the mercury expected to settle into a higher range, but the spring warmth is also predicted to arrive earlier than usual.

Another Early Start to Hurricane Season?

Also like 2021, most forecasters are anticipating that the tropics will start seeing some action well before the official start of Atlantic Hurricane Season on June 1. Because the season seems to get started earlier and earlier each year, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been thinking about moving the official start of the season to earlier in May.

The areas most likely to see early tropical activity this spring include the northeast part of the Gulf through the Florida Panhandle. Coastal Carolina may also be ripe for early tropical development.

Although it is never a picnic to deal with tropical activity so early in the year, the soaking rain that spins out of these systems would be beneficial for the areas of drought scattered across the Southeast.

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