Last Look at Fourth of July Forecast Calls for Widespread Severe Weather

Posted: July 4, 2023 6:58 am

Today is the day that the country comes together to celebrate its independence and rich history. Will the weather cooperate with all of the festivities? Read on for your last-minute Fourth of July forecast.

Millions of Americans Will be at Risk of Stormy Holiday

Forecasters are warning that millions of Americans are going to be at risk of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday, potentially washing out outdoor holiday plans. The central, southern, and eastern U.S. are all primed to see several rounds of severe storms.

While these storms will produce the typical heavy rounds of rain, the most dangerous element will be the frequent lightning strikes. You will want to have a plan to head indoors at the first sound of thunder if your holiday plans call for outdoor activities.

Although Tuesday morning will begin calm in most parts of the country, a surge of moisture coming up from the Gulf of Mexico will help to fuel storm development across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and into the mid-Atlantic. The storm cells will usher in a number of threats, including torrential rain, strong winds, and hail.

Wind gusts could reach up to 80 mph in the hardest hit areas. This measurement would put the winds in the same realm as a Category 1 hurricane.

Most of the coastline areas of the U.S. will enjoy quiet conditions early in the day. Be sure to head out to the beach in the morning for the best weather. As is typical for this time of the year, a sea breeze circulating a few miles inland will serve to guard the barrier islands and coastline from storms. However, these breezes generally weaken as the day goes on, allowing the rain and storms to push farther on shore.

Drier Conditions by Nightfall for the Northeast

A mass of dry air moving in from the west is expected to push out the rain showers in the Northeast during the evening hours. This means that the cities in the Northeast along the Interstate 95 corridor should see the storms move out before sunset, providing for better conditions for the fireworks shows.

However, the showers and sporadic storms may linger through the evening in parts of New England and also in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast. It may be touch and go for a bit for some evening celebrations in this part of the country.

Severe Weather for the Plains

The Plains states will also be under the gun for severe weather on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Storms are in the forecast for the Front Range of the Colorado Rockies and up into southern Wyoming. The line of storms will extend into Wisconsin and through the Upper Peninsula of Michigan as the day goes on.

Cities in the line of fire include Denver, Omaha, Sioux Falls, and Minneapolis. In addition to the usual suspects of high winds and hail, the storms will also come with the risk of localized flash flooding and isolated tornadoes.

Looking Ahead to Wednesday and Thursday

Wednesday will bring largely calmer conditions to most areas of the eastern U.S., however, the storms will linger throughout the central portions of the nation. Stormy conditions will still be a concern for a zone stretching from the southern Plains and up into eastern Colorado. The severe weather will expand into parts of Kentucky, Indiana, and Michigan’s Lower Peninsula.

This potential zone of impact includes the cities of Denver, Kansas City, Amarillo, Tulsa, St. Louis, and Chicago. The major concerns of Wednesday’s weather maker will be frequent wind gusts measuring up to 70 mph and small hail.

Thursday will bring more severe weather to the central Plains and again to the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Areas west of the Rockies and into the interior West will see mostly tranquil conditions for the week. However, this part of the West is forecast to see rapidly climbing temperatures.

The Northwest will experience temperatures that are 10 to 20 degrees above normal for early in July along with the chance of smoke coming down from the Canadian wildfires.

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