U.S. Wildfire Forecast: Here’s What You Need to Know

Posted: April 21, 2023 12:00 pm

Although it seems like the U.S. just wrapped up winter, wildfire season will be here before you know it. Now is the time to understand what the season may have in store for your neck of the woods so that you can adequately prepare for what may lie ahead.

Here is what the experts are predicting for the upcoming wildfire season across the country.

Inside the Destruction of Wildfires

There is no denying the destruction of a wildfire. Not only can these fires prove deadly but they are also capable of destroying dozens of structures in minutes while disrupting life for those in their path.

Although the unusually wet winter across the West has no doubt improved the outlook for fire season this winter, it does not mean that the risk is not there any longer.

Most experts are predicting that the 2023 season will land at near historical levels. This translates to a prediction of about 60,000 to 75,000 fires that will burn through about 6.5 million to 8.25 million acres.

The average for the U.S. comes in at 68,707 fires along with over 7,000,000 acres on a yearly basis.

It is important to remember that you cannot define the severity of a specific fire season based on acres burned alone. What can be more important is the impact that the fires have on a community as a whole.

For instance, a fire that roars through a populated area is inherently more impactful than one that strikes away from population centers.

Looking back on 2022, more than 7.5 million acres were scorched across the U.S. This number was enough for 11th place in the record books.

California saw a lesser amount of acres burned thanks to plentiful amounts of rain in the late summer and early fall months. Fewer wind events in the Golden State also helped to provide a less severe wildfire season.

What makes wildfire frequency so difficult to predict is the simple fact that almost 90% of all fire events are triggered by humans.

Because the fires are not naturally a result of weather patterns, meteorologists have a more challenging time predicting the anticipated severity of a season in advance. After all, you cannot predict human behavior.

That said, here is what forecasters are predicting for the upcoming season.

California

The good news for California this year is that the massive amount of snowpack left behind by the exceptionally wet and snowy winter season will almost certainly delay the start of the season for the state.

On the flip side of this coin, the unseasonably high amounts of precipitation will also usher in more growth to the area. This increased amount of vegetation will then provide more fuel for fires later in the summer and into the fall months.

In addition, the gusty winds associated with the winter parade of storms also brought down tree limbs and branches. This will serve as more fuel for raging fires.

As a result of these factors, forecasters are predicting that California will see a historically low amount of fires through June. However, this risk will increase as the moisture runs out and the summer temperatures continue to rise.

The peak of the wildfire season for Northern California will fall in August and September with the southern and central parts of the state seeing the greatest threat starting in September and continuing through November.

The increased amount of lightning that accompanies the North American monsoon season will serve as the fire source for these events. As is typical, the increase in lightning will pair with the onset of the Santa Ana winds to provide the impetus for wildfires to start and spread.

Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountains

Like California, the Four Corners region will see a lower risk of fires during the early part of the season because of the significant moisture that fell over the winter. The risk will grow as the summer marches on.

While the Four Corners states may be spared a hard wildfire season, the interior Northwest and the northern tier of the Rockies may not be as lucky.

The winter season in this corner of the country saw a drier than average winter, depleting snow packs and water reservoirs. This includes a large portion of northern Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington state.

The fire risk will start to ramp up in this part of the Northwest in late June or early July. The peak will happen along traditional lines of late July and into the early part of September.

Complicating the fire risk in the interior Northwest will be the prediction of multiple heat waves. Should this prediction come to fruition, it will be easier for fires to take root and spread.

Other Areas of the U.S.

While the West Coast deservedly gets the bulk of the attention during wildfire season, this does not mean that other parts of the country are immune to these disasters. Alaska carries the distinction for the highest amount of wildfires outside of the immediate West Coast.

Forecasters are predicting that the state will see less activity when compared to 2022, however, there is still a high risk for these blazes to erupt.

The silver lining of Alaska’s fires is that they typically occur far from towns and cities, limiting their danger to populated areas. But the smoke from these blazes can still wreak havoc on areas far away from the primary impact zone.

The state of Florida will also be at an elevated risk of brush fires for the next few months. Despite the record rainfall this month in South Florida, the bulk of the peninsula saw a drier than average winter season. This dryness will contribute to a higher than normal risk of brush fires over the spring months.

This threat will hopefully decrease as the wet summer season moves into the Sunshine State. In addition to the normal pattern of afternoon thunderstorms and rain showers, the onset of tropical weather season will also help to tamper the odds of fires in Florida.

It is also important to note that your neck of the woods may see the impacts of fires burning thousands of miles of way. The particles within the giant plumes of smoke that billow up from fires on the West Coast can travel to the East Coast given the right atmospheric conditions.

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